The independent hearing into Manchester City’s 115 alleged breaches of the Premier League’s financial regulations is finally underway, commencing a process which Kieran Maguire (The Price of Football) expects to conclude no earlier than the new year.

Hanging over the Club since February 2023, the alleged offences range from 2009-2018. The current four-times reigning English champions have consistently denied wrongdoing; just days out from the trial, manager and figurehead Pep Guardiola re-asserted all are ‘innocent until proven guilty.’

‘People have become very emotionally invested in Manchester City’s case. It’s going to be a painful experience, and anybody anticipating a verdict before Christmas is going to be very disappointed’, Maguire told Box2Box.

‘It would appear the hearing will last somewhere between eight-to-twelve weeks, and there are now long-lens camera crews parked outside where the commission is taking place, so we know lawyers are going in on a day-to-day basis. If there are 115 charges there has to be 115 defences, and time to come up with 115 verdicts.’

More than a few football fans have fallen foul of melding what they know – football tribalism, rivalry – with what they don’t, financial regulations, courtroom proceedings, etcetera. While City’s defiance has provided fuel for the court of the non-City-supporting public opinion to reach their verdict, Maguire explained it is the financial charges which will result in the most damage, should they be found guilty.

‘It’s effectively three charges: has Manchester City artificially inflated money coming into the club; have they artificially deflated money going out by having image rights and salaries paid by third parties; thirdly, there’s that lack of cooperation.’

‘The first two are corporate fraud, and I think it would be impossible for any board of directors to remain and have any credibility. Heads would have to go in terms of senior executives, which we saw with Juventus when accused of financial misdemeanours by the Italian government.

‘At the same time, City’s approach to this from Day One has been, ‘bring it on’. They are convinced they will exonerate themselves, and then look very much forward to handing across a ridiculously large legal bill to the Premier League. I think we’re probably looking at (AUD) $200-250million.

Maguire does feel that the verdict will be final, and pointed to the Premier League’s acceptance of a recent finding in Leicester City’s favour at their expense as precedent. However, there is a reason why it’s Manchester City involved in what’s been dubbed the ‘sports trial of the century’, and not the comparatively-lowly Foxes.

‘I think we’re probably looking at around February or March, 2025. That would give the commission an appropriate time to consider the evidence and, also, we’re talking about three very high profile lawyers making the decision.

‘They’ve already got things in their diary, trying to find time to get them around the table together is difficult. When it comes out, the verdict, regardless of outcome, there is very limited scope for an appeal from either party – but as all lawyers say, that doesn’t mean there’s no scope.’